CRITICAL, CURRENT ARTICLES

Fauci admits to Paul no scientific evidence booster vaccines in kids reduce hospitalization or death

CORRUPTION

ECOMONY + FINANCE

The Next Commodity Supercycle Is Upon Us

By Corey McLaughlin, editor, Stansberry DigestFarming is all the rage right now…Paid-up subscriber Dan S., who has run a Wisconsin farm for years, wrote to us on April 19 to say so. In an astute observation – after reading comments from several other subscribers in our Digest mailbag the night before – he said…Wow! Three unprompted references to farming in one mailbag. That has to be a first.When the price of primary inputs of production (metals, food, fuel, and timber) are all rising, their impact on inflation downstream is inevitable, and probably long lived. Buckle up.It’s true. All the feedback Dan referenced was about farming… and how higher costs on everything from fertilizer to corn and wheat was changing the price of doing business.Indeed, the gears of entrenched inflation are turning…Take your pick of the catalyst…Higher prices and too few goods and supply-chain problems stemming from a pandemic and a war… money supply created by the Federal Reserve has grown 40% in the last two years… more than $4 trillion in fiscal stimulus over that span too…Or the fact that some wages are going up, but generally they’re still not keeping pace with rising prices not seen in four decades…Each of these scenarios could cause significant inflationary pressures on its own. Put them together and, well, we’ll get to that today…Price pain is the most obvious outcome for most people, of course… But there’s much more to the inflation story than that…As I’ll explain, it has a lot to do with rising costs on the farm – and everywhere – today.Let’s start here ? “price pain” stems from the most basic of ideas…Longtime subscribers, perhaps forgive me for being too simple-minded, but I need to start at the beginning. Strong demand and big supply issues… it’s Economics 101.Sooner or later, on balance, this will result in higher prices… or the government stepping in and asking businesses not to raise prices out of the goodness of their own hearts, or at the expense of their own profits.We could get into a lot of other nuances of inflation – such as how expectations are rising, which the bond market is telling us – and how the Fed royally screwed up policy moves over the past year that could have avoided worst-case scenarios…That’s another basic idea… Bad decisions. And, actually, we must and will go there, with something we wrote back in the February 23, 2021 Digest…[Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell] said he thinks inflation will be volatile but doesn’t expect pandemic-opening price hikes “will be large and persistent.”We’ll see.We’ve now seen. Inflation is, in fact, large and persistent. The exact opposite of what Powell said a year ago.But today, rather than saying “we told you so,” – or wondering if the Fed actually wanted high inflation to eat away at the massive federal debt – the most useful thing to probably do here is to consider what to do about higher prices now when it comes to our investments…In other words, let’s explore what the current inflation situation is telling us about the economy now, and how the markets and certain stocks and sectors could respond moving forward.First off, as our colleague Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig says, perhaps the most important thing you can do when thinking about inflation and how it plays out in the markets is to think about “expectations.”As Doc wrote in the January 2021 issue of his Income Intelligence newsletter and we can reshare word for word today…The expectations for inflation will drive investment returns. When you expect inflation, you position yourself differently than you would if you expect deflation. And other investors doing the same thing will drive some investments to lead and others to lag.For example, since near the end of 2021 – when the Fed finally signaled it was going to start raising interest rates to cool demand in the economy (and, it says, inflation), stocks, particularly growth names, have by and large sold off…Even with the major U.S. indexes enjoying a bump over the past week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is down 21% year to date… the small-cap Russell 2000 Index is off 15%… the benchmark S&P 500 Index is down less, but still a significant 12%… and the stodgy ol’ Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 9% since the start of the year.That’s the “slower economic-growth expectations” part of the story…At the same time, old reliable government bonds – which folks have considered a ballast for their portfolios for decades as a hedge against stock market risk – have sold off too, because of inflation expectations…One way to gauge inflation expectations is to look at U.S. Treasury yields, which reflect demand for low-risk government bonds.It’s really counterintuitive… The less compelled people are to let money sit in a paltry-yielding – even if “safe” – government bond, the more likely they are to sell these bonds, and the more bond yields rise. This is due to the fact that yields rise as bond prices fall, and vice versa…Eventually, bond yields might become attractive enough to lure more money into bonds, on balance, but that’s not happening yet with official inflation numbers still on the rise and continuing uncertainty about when they will slow, plateau, or fall.Today, the 10-year Treasury yield sits around 2.9%, a number previously not seen since 2018 and a sharp 67% gain since March 7. For the typically “turtle speed” bond market, that’s a hare-like move…And it means that, as a whole, bond investors aren’t willing to let inflation eat away at that part of their allocation unless they get greater than a 3% yield for even a government bond, the lowest-risk assets most people can think of.Sometimes, when these big, slow-moving trends are in place, it can be more profitable to simply follow what’s actually happening (and be truly diversified) rather than trying to predict what’s going to happen.Because big trends can go on longer than you think… And as individual investors we’re not beholden to conventional wisdom – like the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio – which is losing money this year.What if I told you there was one asset class that is up more than 40% in 2022?You would probably be interested… especially if I told you the trend was still “up” and all the bullish factors haven’t run their course yet… and these assets are some of the oldest, most in-demand resources on Earth…I’m talking about commodities. This is the focus of the second module of the new Stansberry’s Financial Survival Program, released to subscribers and Alliance members on April 15.Commodities can grow on a farm, like corn, soybeans, or wheat… or they can be mined from the ground, like the metals used to make any number of goods. They can be things people don’t necessarily want but need.Just like many people were reminded over the past two years, all the stuff we buy online has to come from somewhere – like container ships, which are piloted by real people – it’s a similar story with the necessities of modern life.As our colleague Bill Shaw wrote in the second Financial Survival Program lesson…Commodities are simply the basic goods and materials that society needs to function and thrive – such as wheat, coffee, copper, oil, and livestock. Investing in commodities isn’t as “sexy” as buying the latest tech fad, but under the right circumstances, these can be incredible investments.Today, Bill says we’re seeing the right environment. We don’t need to tell you about rising prices at the store… or on the farm… and you can see the rising prices on the big sign at the gas station.That’s the painful part for consumers like you and I. Higher prices stink for household budgets.Fortunately for folks like farmers, the prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat have risen, too, but that only means that the increases will come out of the consumer’s hide eventually. That’s because demand for these essential commodities is so high, even amid continued global supply-chain issues and the shocks of the war in Ukraine…

The price of natural gas, for instance, is up 180% over the past year… The price of corn hit a nine-year high in April. Coal is up 260% in the past 12 months. We could go on and on…It has gotten to the point that, after two years of dealing with a pandemic, supply-chain issues, and now a war in Eastern Europe and amid a tight labor market, premiums are being paid just to make sure you have goods at all… before they run out or can’t get to you.We might be living through a shift from “just in time” supply chains – where everything was designed to “get there” at the last minute to minimize inventory costs to a world where there is value in having access to scarce resources at all.Ben Brown, a University of Missouri agriculture economist, said in a recent interview for the industry media website Brownfield Ag News…For a long time, with no Black Swans, no issues, we wanted the cheapest product possible and the “just in time” system provided for that. We’re now maybe saying, “We’re willing to pay a little bit more to ensure the product is always there when we want it.”That’s an important clarification. We as a society have changed our values when it comes to availability.This changing psychology in the economy can’t be understated…And it’s being reflected in commodity prices. The S&P GSCI Total Return Index – a benchmark of global commodity performance – is up more than 50% over the past year and has gained 40% in 2022.This index is made up of 24 major commodities, like energy, metals, and agricultural products. Now, you might say, “Of course those prices are up. Russia’s a big exporter of all of those things, notably oil… and Ukraine is a big wheat producer, more than many people realize.”True, but a few important details…No. 1… The reality is the conflict in Eastern Europe has shown no signs of a resolution happening anytime soon…No. 2… The supply-and-demand dynamics for higher oil prices were already in place before the Russian military invaded Ukraine…And No. 3… We don’t have a ton of recent history to draw on. But once inflation cycles get going, they are hard to just “stop” without pain being felt somewhere…Remember, what we’re seeing now is the culmination of two years, a lot of large and small decisions that have added up… And it goes back to the 1970s when the U.S. dollar was totally set free from its gold peg.That set off an inflation spike in the U.S. that the economy hasn’t had again until now… and ended with former Fed Chair Paul Volcker raising interest rates to 20% and inducing a recession to stop inflation. The move was widely hailed.The point is, today, hundreds of millions of people are still going to need and want food and energy… inflation is with us in a way that has not been seen in four decades… and as we’ll end with today, the timing is such that commodities, in general, are overdue for a big bullish run anyway…As Bill writes in the Financial Survival Program, commodity prices tend to move as a group through long markets (bull or bear) called “supercycles.”I can’t give away everything here, but I can say a little. The pattern goes back 200 years… and these supercycles have lasted an average of two decades… and are typically set off by a catalyst, such as war.A bear market for commodities started in 2008. And the pandemic-inflation-war trifecta could certainly be the catalyst this time for another bull run… and it’s an opportunity we don’t want you to miss…Commodities are up 40% this year alone, yes, but the average bull market in commodities the past two centuries has lasted close to two decades and gained around 250%…The timing and context here are important, though…Many market analysts have been calling for the next commodities “supercycle” for a decade… to great disappointment…As our publisher Brett Aitken wrote in our annual Report Card for 2021, the benchmark Bloomberg Commodity Index had plummeted 54% since July 2008 through February of this year. As Brett wrote…”Brutal” is one word to describe the performance in this sector. Other more colorful words likely come out of the mouths of those trying to make a buck or two in this space over the past decade.There have been several fakeouts and false starts over that time, but the recent bullish turn for commodities looks like the real deal start of a new supercycle.When you compare commodities with stocks in particular, you’re looking at a tremendous “asymmetric” setup, maybe the best in the world today. As Bill shares…The following chart shows the price ratio between the S&P GSCI Total Return Index – a benchmark of global commodity performance – and the S&P 500 Index.As the ratio falls, commodities are considered cheap compared with stocks. And as you can see, this ratio has been stuck at 50-year lows.

Even with the recent price spikes in oil, wheat, and corn, commodities are still incredibly cheap compared with stocks in the S&P 500… And, as we said, bull runs for these hard assets on average have gained 250% over long periods of time…In other words, even allocating a small amount today to commodities can pay off handsomely, especially in an inflationary world where stocks and bonds are losing value…You might think I’ve already given away everything from the latest edition of our new Financial Survival Program, but what I’ve talked about today is really just the overarching idea of why you should consider commodities in your portfolio today.Bill, who is the editor of our Commodity Supercycles newsletter, gets into more detail about the themes at work in the second module of our survival program… He details the history of bull and bear markets in commodities and more about what has led us to this key inflection point today.And, importantly, he explains how you can use this information, not just to protect, but to grow the value of your portfolio. Sure, you could go out and buy a commodities index fund and get some exposure that way, but you can also do more…Importantly, Bill says the shares of companies that produce and sell commodities can soar several times higher than the commodities themselves when prices rise…The best-positioned companies are those that own and operate some of the most important “hard assets” on the planet, which offer leverage to rising prices in things that people need… no matter what happens in the world next.Bill has hand-picked one such company for all subscribers in lesson two of our seven-part Financial Survival Program. Its shares rose nearly 1,000% during the last bullish commodities supercycle 20 years ago… and it’s just as relevant to the global economy today.This new research is a must-read. Hopefully you’ve picked up on that from our messages this weekend and will consider learning more.For what I consider a very reasonable price given the education and recommendations, you’ll get access to seven all-new pieces of research designed specifically for today’s market environment.We’ve already published all seven modules. And they are timely, designed specifically for today’s volatile market…

FAMILY SAFETY/CHINA: OUR ENEMY

GLOBALISM

George Soros’ Latest PURCHASES Reveals A Much Larger Plan

GUN CONTROL

Senate Preps For Second Amendment Showdowns

IMMIGRATION

INTERNATIONAL

WOMEN/FAMILY/EDUCATION

CRITICAL, CURRENT VIDEOS

https://tuckercarlson.com/tulsi-gabbard-members-of-congress-dont-care-about-the-real-problems-were-facing/?utm_medium=email_hf&utm_source=et_367_na&utm_campaign=20220614_icymi-tulsi-jan-6-committee_tuckercarlsoncom_tc&utm_content=watch_cpyrs_105537

PRESERVE YOUR FREEDOM STAND UP – TAKE ACTION

Link to previous major COVID shows:

September 11, 2021

September 18, 2021

September 25, 2021

Foreign Policy History–Missed Opportunities…Biden–A foreign Disaster…Gun Control Rolling Down The Tracks…The Economy/Housing–You NEED To Know

CRITICAL, CURRENT ARTICLES

The Next Commodity Supercycle Is Upon Us

CRITICAL, CURRENT VIDEOS

Leave A Comment... Cancel reply